For the week of July 24-28.
It will be a quiet week for data in Canada outside of two larger releases for wholesale trades and GDP. May GDP figures will be released on Friday and will be following growth postings of 0.2 and 3.3 percent on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis respectively for the month of April. In the United States, releases are expected for new home sales, wholesale inventories, quarterly GDP, and personal consumption. In addition to these US data releases, the Federal Reserve also has a policy meeting this week with the announcement expected on Wednesday.
Inflation figures released in June for Canada aligned with expectations, while retail sales releases exceeded expectations. Consumer prices released in June also aligned with expectations by falling by 0.1 percent on a month-over-month basis, while year-over-year growth fell short of expectations at 1.0 percent. Retail sales grew by 0.6 percent on a month-over-month basis in May. Expectations were calling for growth of only 0.3 percent for the month. However, once car sales were removed from the data, sales fell by 0.1 percent.
Oil prices are being affected as OPEC and non-OPEC members are not looking to deepen current cuts. Although further cuts seem to be off the table, there may a be discussion of capping the production of Libya and Nigeria. Both countries were exempt from the original production cut agreement, but have been growing production levels significantly since that time. Prices are currently up by 0.83 percent.
The Canadian dollar is trading relatively flat against the US dollar this morning. Today’s expected range is 1.2477 – 1.2577.
For the week of July 17 to 21.
Data expected out of Canada this week will be centered on Friday, with the release of consumer prices for the month of June and retail sales for May. Consumer prices grew by 0.0 percent on a month-over-month basis and 1.1 percent on a year-over-year basis. Retail sales grew by 0.3 percent. Releases will also be occurring for international security transactions and manufacturing sales. Releases in the United States this week will occur for empire manufacturing, housing starts, and building permits.
According to last Friday’s release, inflation growth is slowing down, indicating that consumer prices did not grow from May’s level. This slow-down is likely to be an important topic of discussion for the Federal Reserve, who is looking to continue to raise interest rates in the United States. The Federal Reserve is expected to remain on hold for some time, with at least a 50 percent implied of an interest rate hike not occurring until March of 2018.
The Canadian dollar continued to see strength on Friday by improved oil prices and the recent interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada. The currency crossed the level of CAD/USD .7900 on Friday for the first time in more than a year. The Canadian dollar is currently trading slightly down against the US dollar this morning.
Economic growth surpassed expectations in China for the second quarter of 2017. GDP levels grew by 6.9 percent, higher than the economists’ expectations of 6.8 percent.
For the week of July 4-7.
The amount of oil produced by members of OPEC countries moved in an undesirable direction for the month of June. Production levels reached their highest level of the year thus far, (260,000 barrels higher than they were seen in May) as countries such as Libya and Nigeria continued to ramp up their levels. Libya and Nigeria are currently exempt from the production cut agreement reached by the organization. Increases from these two countries made up half of the build, while Saudi Arabia bumped up production by approximately 90,000 barrels. Oil prices are currently down by .21 percent after rising for eight straight trading days.
Markets have also been disturbed after North Korea successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile over the weekend, landing in Japanese waters. Concern was amplified as experts determined the missile would likely have the capability of reaching Alaska.
Business sentiment levels appear to be on the rise as the Bank of Canada claims the measure is at its highest level since 2011.
Data releases expected out of Canada this week will include building permits and employment numbers. In the United States, releases are expected for ADP employment change, trade balance, non-farm payrolls, and the unemployment rate.
The Canadian dollar is currently trading up against the US dollar. Today’s expected range is 1.2927 – 1.3027.
For the week of May 29 – June 2.
Data this week will include releases for the raw materials price index, Canadian manufacturing, and international merchandise trade. These results are expected to release at 0.3 percent, 4.2 percent, and 2.9 percent. In the United States we will see data for personal income and spending, ADP employment changes, ISM manufacturing, trade balance, and employment figures. Non-farm payrolls are expected to show that 185,000 new positions were added to the United States economy, decreasing from the 211,000 in April.
Annualized quarter-over-quarter US GDP came out stronger than expected in the second reading of the first quarter, posting at 1.2 percent. In addition to consumer spending, business spending increased as well.
Oil prices showed modest strength on Friday after being pushed significantly lower on Thursday upon the release of OPEC’s production cut extension. Thursday ended with pricing decreasing by nearly 5 percent, but regained approximately 1.84 percent to close the week out on Friday.
The Canadian dollar is trading relatively flat against the US dollar this morning. Today’s expected range is 1.3401 – 1.3501.
For the week of May 22 – 26.
It will be a slow week for data in Canada outside of the Bank of Canada’s May 24 rate announcement; the only notable release will be coming from wholesale trades and the CFIB business barometer. As of today the market interest rate sits very low at 2 percent. Despite little chance of movement, investors will be keen to hear members discuss their view of the Canadian economy. Releases out of the United States this week will consist of manufacturing PMI, new home sales, existing home sales, wholesale inventories, GDP, durable goods orders, and University of Michigan Sentiment.
As of this morning, oil is down by approximately 0.12 percent. As investors are eagerly awaiting Thursday’s OPEC meeting in Vienna, a failure to reach an agreement on an extension will follow a substantial fall in oil prices later this week. There has been further detail on the proposed cut extension. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and Mexico have confirmed that they would back a nine month extension.
Wholesale trade sales in Canada surpassed expectations in March, growing by 0.9 percent on a month-over-month-over-month basis instead of the expected 0.8 percent. In addition to expected growth for March, February’s growth was revised from -0.2 percent upward to 0.3 percent. Sales increased by 0.6 percent in volume terms. Inventories were down by 0.3 percent.
Today’s expected range is 1.3416 – 1.3516.