Weekly Economic Update

For the week of November 10 to 14

Housing Starts are forecast to show a gain of 200.0K for October this morning, following a gain of 197.3K in the previous release. It will be a fairly quiet week throughout Canada with a majority of the country off for the Remembrance Day stat holiday on Tuesday, November 11. Last week we saw the Unemployment Rate fall to 6.5% for October, well below expectations of 6.9% as Employment actually increased by 43.1K, compared to economists calling for a drop of 5.0K. It is also quiet throughout the United States today without any major economic data on the schedule. Last week’s employment data released slightly lower than expected, showing a gain of 214K for October compared to forecasts of 235K. However, the Unemployment Rate managed to drop slightly to 5.8% due to upward revisions in the previous month’s employment figures.

The focus throughout the abbreviated workweek falls on the New Housing Price Index scheduled to release on Thursday, followed by Manufacturing Sales on Friday. The New Housing Price Index is expected to show an increase of 0.2% for September while Manufacturing Sales are forecast to increase by 1.1%.

Highlights throughout the United States this week include updates to Wholesale Inventories, the Monthly Budget Statement, and Retail Sales data. Inventories are forecast to rise by 0.2% on a month-over-month basis for September while the Monthly Budget Statement is expected to show the deficit throughout October at $114.0B. In the most important release of the week, Retail Sales are forecast to increase by 0.2% for October after falling by 0.3% in the previous month.

In the currency markets, the Canadian dollar has been able to hold onto gains made late last week against its U.S. counterpart. The CAD made significant gains on Friday morning, as Canadian employment data surpassed expectations for October. This morning, strengthening oil prices have been able to push the CAD even further in its recovery against the U.S. dollar. Although oil prices are still below what many investors expected at $80 per barrel, they are above the lows of $76 per barrel hit throughout last week. In a fairly quiet week for Canadian data, risks to the CAD will come from fluctuating oil prices and U.S. Retail Sales scheduled for Friday.

Todays expected range: 1.1260 – 1.1360

Source: Bloomberg

Posted by Concentra Financial Markets

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