Weekly Economic Update

487806549For the week of January 5 to 9

An update to the Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Index is on the schedule for Canada this morning. The Index currently sits at 55.1, its lowest level over the past 12 months. In the United States, an update will be made to ISM New York for the December period after releasing at 62.40 for November. This index tracks the sentiment among purchasing managers at manufacturing, construction and/or services firms. Later this morning we will see an update to Wards Vehicle Sales with expectations to see a slight drop from 17.08M to 16.90M in total vehicle sales for December compared to the previous release.

Headlines throughout Canada this week include updates to Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Employment data, all scheduled to release on Friday, January 9. Housing Starts are expected to release at 190.0K for December, down slightly from a revised 195.0K in the latest updated while Building Permits are expected to post a gain of 0.8% for November. The Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain at 6.6% for December while net employment increases slightly by 10.0K jobs.

Focus in the United States this week falls on updates to Factory Orders, the Trade Balance, and Employment data. Factory Orders are predicted to post a drop of 0.4% for November after falling by 0.7% in the latest release. The Trade Balance is expected to show a deficit of -$42.0B for November, up slightly from the October release of -$43.4B. Lastly, the Unemployment rate is forecast to tick down to 5.7% for December as Nonfarm Payrolls increase by 240K.

The Canadian dollar has fallen further against its U.S. counterpart as the USD has shown broad-based strength against a majority of its trading counterparts. The USD strength has brought new lows to the EUR, CAD, AUD, GBP, and SEK. Also weakening the CAD, the price of oil has hit a new low, now trading close to $51 per barrel. Focus for today falls on data out of the United States due to the lack of significant domestic data. If we continue to see broad USD strength combined with weak CAD indicators, the USDCAD exchange could push above 1.20 for the first time since midway throughout 2009.

Todays expected range: 1.1725 – 1.1825

Source: Bloomberg

Posted by Concentra Financial Markets

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