In Canada this morning, the Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Index is the only release on the schedule. The Index has fallen in two straight weeks leading up to today’s release and is currently sitting at 54.15. In the United States, Existing Home Sales are forecast to drop by 1.8% for January, releasing at 4.95M after posting a gain of 2.4% in the previous month. Also on the schedule today, the Dallas Fed. Manufacturing Activity index is expected to release at -4.0 for February compared to -4.4 from the latest release.
The highlight of this week in Canada comes on Thursday with an update to the Consumer Price Index. The CPI is expected to fall by 0.4% m/m for January while posting a gain of 0.8% y/y. Core CPI is expected to rise slightly by 0.1% m/m and 2.1% y/y. Headlines throughout the United States include updates to the CPI scheduled for Thursday followed by GDP data on Friday. CPI is expected to post a monthly decrease of 0.6% for January and GDP is expected to rise by a 2.0% annualized rate for the fourth quarter.
In the currency markets, the Canadian dollar is falling against the USD in early trading this morning. The USD has shown broad based strength as we are approaching the next rate announcements from the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve. The price of oil has fallen today, trading just below $49 per barrel which concerns Canadian markets. Slumping oil was the tipping point for the Bank of Canada when they announced the first rate cut, without any real recovery, many analysts are expecting another rate cut at the March 4th announcement.
Todays expected range: 1.2575 – 1.2675
Posted by Concentra Financial Markets