Weekly Economic Update

For the week of April 27 to May 1

471920189In Canada this morning, the Bloomberg Nanos Confidence index will update for the week ending April 24 after releasing at 56.1 in the most recent update. The confidence index is currently sitting at its highest level since late January. In the United States, The Markit US Composite PMI will update for April, following a release of 59.2 in the latest update. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index will also update for April with forecasts calling for a value of -12.0, compared to -17.4 in the latest release.

Focus throughout Canada this week falls on the update to GDP scheduled for Thursday, April 30. On a month-over-month basis, GDP is expected to fall by 0.1% in February, matching the drop from the previous month. Year-over-year, GDP is expected to show an increase of 2.0% compared to 2.4% in last month’s update. Focus throughout the United States this week falls on updates the Consumer Confidence Index, GDP, and the FOMC Rate Decision. The Confidence Index is expected to rise from 101.3 to 102.4 and GDP is forecasted to post an increase of 1.0% in the first quarter. Economists are calling for the FOMC to hold interest rates at their current level but still believe a rate hike is on the table for later this year.

In the currency markets, the Canadian dollar is slightly stronger against the USD in early trading this morning. GDP and oil prices will be key drivers of the CAD this week. Oil is continuing its upward trend this morning, trading just below $57.50 per barrel. The CAD could also fluctuate following the FOMC rate announcement. Although markets are expecting the FOMC rate to remain on hold, a change in tone from the Fed could lead to shifting FX markets.

Todays expected range: 1.2080 – 1.2180

Source: Bloomberg

Posted by Concentra Financial Markets

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