Weekly Economic Update

For the week of May 4 to 8

487806549In Canada this morning, the Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Index will update for the week ending May 1, following a release of 56.1 in the latest update. The Confidence Index is currently sitting at its highest level since late January 2015. South of the border, Factory Orders are expected to rise by 2.0% in March following the slight increase of 0.2% in the most recent update. On Friday May 1, Construction Spending released at a decrease of 0.6% for March, much lower than forecasts calling for an increase of 0.5%. Declines in most of the major categories offset slight gains in the private nonresidential category.

Focus throughout Canada this week falls on the Housing Starts and Employment data scheduled to release on May 8. Housing Starts are expected to release at 182.0K for April, down slightly from the 189.7K in the previous month. Employment is forecast to fall slightly by 5K jobs with the Unemployment Rate ticking up to 6.9%. In the U.S. focus also falls on Friday employment data as well as updates to the Trade Balance and Wholesale Inventories. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to release at 225K for April, up from 126K in the previous release while the Unemployment Rate is expected to fall slightly to 5.4%.

In the currency markets, the Canadian dollar has shown strength against its U.S. counterpart in early trading this morning. Oil prices are up as well this morning, supporting the CAD strength with a barrel of oil approaching $60. With a relatively quiet day in terms of economic data, the CAD will be vulnerable to broader market news and activity. Focus this week will fall on Friday’s unemployment data as it will be a key factor in the next Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve rate decisions.

Todays expected range: 1.2050 – 1.2150

Source: Bloomberg

Posted by Concentra Financial Markets

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