Weekly Economic Update

For week of July 27 – 31, 2015

In Canada this morning, the Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Index will update for the week ending July 24 following a release of 55.0 in the most recent update. The Index is currently sitting at its lowest level since May 2013. In the United States, Durable Goods Orders have increased by 3.4% in June following a revised drop of 2.1% in the latest update. Excluding Transportation, Durables increased by 0.8%, beating the expected gain of 0.5%. Later this morning the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index will update for July with forecasts calling for a value of -3.5, up from -7.0 in the latest update.

Focus throughout Canada this week falls on the update to GDP data for May scheduled for July 31. On a month over month basis, GDP is forecasted to show no change, following a drop of 0.1% in the latest release. Year-over-year, GDP is expected to rise by 0.8%. Headlines in the United States this week include updates to the FOMC rate, GDP, and the Consumer Confidence Index. The Consumer Confidence Index is expected to fall from 101.4 to 100.0 in July while annualized GDP for the second quarter is expected to rise by 2.5%.

In the currency markets, the Canadian dollar is slightly stronger against the USD in trading this morning. In a fairly quiet day throughout Canada, focus falls on U.S. data and fluctuations in oil. The price per barrel of crude is down further this morning, trading at $47.50. Moving forward, the risk to the CAD falls on Wednesday’s FOMC update. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen should provide more guidance as to when the Fed will increase interest rates. Some investors are expecting a rate hike to come as early as this September.

Todays expected range: 1.2956 – 1.3056

Source: Bloomberg

Posted by Concentra Financial Markets

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