For the week of October 26 to 30
The Bloomberg Nanos Confidence Index is the only release on the schedule in Canada this morning, updating for the week ending October 23. The Index has increased in four straight weekly periods, currently sitting at 56.7. In the United States, New Home Sales are expected to release at 550k for September, a month over month drop of 0.4% after rising by 5.7% in the latest update. Also on the schedule today, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Report is expected to release at -6.5.
Focus throughout Canada this week falls on the August GDP updated schedule to release on October 30. Month-over-month GDP is expected to rise by 0.1% while on a year-over-year basis an increase of 0.9% is forecast. It will be a busy week south of the border with updates to GDP, Personal Income, and Personal Spending all on the schedule along with the next FOMC Rate Decision. Forecasts are calling for the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged. Third quarter GDP is forecast to rise at an annualized rate of 1.5% while Personal Spending and Personal Income are expected to rise by 0.2% in September.
In the currency markets, the Canadian Dollar has shown slight signs of strength against its U.S. counterpart in trading this morning. Domestic risk to the CAD is considered relatively low this week, currency traders will look to broader market developments. The price of oil will remain a key risk to the CAD, currently sitting at $44.44 per barrel. The FOMC Rate Decision could also significantly impact the CAD this week. Markets will be watching to see if the Federal Reserve decides to go ahead with a surprise interest rate hike or if they give off a more aggressive tone that could signal a hike is coming in the near future.
Todays expected range: 1.3095 – 1.3195
Posted by Concentra Financial Markets