For the week of November 23 to 27
The Bloomberg Nanos Confidence survey is the only release out of Canada today for the week of November 20. After a dip in August, confidence in the economy has been steadily trending higher with last week’s reading at 58.6 (the eighth straight week of gains). Perceptions that the economy will grow in the next six months has doubled, with British Columbia and Ontario showing the highest optimism. South of the border, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October will released this morning with expectations of a 0.08 indicating above-average growth after a reading of-0.37 in September. A value of 0 indicates the economy is running at historical levels. Later today we’ll also see a release to the Markit US Manufacturing PMI expected to stay relatively unchanged at 54.0 in November and existing home sales surveyed at 5.40M for October, which would be down 2.7% over the month.
In the currency markets, CAD is showing weakness in the early start to the week based off soft commodity prices with WTI trading just over $40/barrel. Earlier this morning headlines were flooded with the news of the Saudi government indicating they are ready to do what it takes for stable oil prices so expect the USD/CAD volatility until clarity is provided at the December OPEC meeting. With the absence of domestic data this week, CAD is left vulnerable to swings in oil prices and any news surrounding the December 2 BoC policy decision.
Todays expected range: 1.3290 – 1.3390
The Week Ahead:
It’s quiet out of Canada for the remainder of the week. On Wednesday, industrial product and raw material prices will be released for October. Industrials are expected to decline 0.1% after a 0.3% fall in the prior month and raw materials are expected to increase 1.0% after 3.0% increase.
Out of the U.S., there are a slew of important releases this week. On Tuesday, GDP (annualized, QoQ) will be released for the third quarter of the year with the U.S. economy expecting to expand at 2.1% after a 1.5% expansion in Q2. Other important releases on Tuesday include Personal Consumption for the third quarter and the Consumer Confidence Index for November. On Wednesday a released to personal income and spending for October are expected to increase 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. Durable goods, also for October are expected at 1.6% and excluding transportation, 0.3%. See below for a detailed calendar of events.
Posted by Concentra Financial Markets