Weekly Economic Update

For the week of January 11 to 15

It was a relatively quiet Monday for data with the most notable release coming from Canada’s Housing Starts data. Housing Starts for the month of December released at 173.0k, missing the expectation of a posting of 200.0k, after November’s release of 211.9k. Business Outlook Future also released data Monday in Canada at 16.00 for the fourth quarter, matching last quarter’s data. It was very quiet in the United States Monday with only one scheduled release. Average Monthly Change in Fed Labor Market Conditions Index posted at 2.9 for the month of December following November’s release of 0.5.

With little expected data releases throughout Canada this week, focus will be falling on Monday’s release of December’s Housing Starts as well as November’s New Housing Price Index which releases on Thursday. New Housing Price Index is expected to grow by 0.2% after growing by 0.3% for the month of October. Focus in the United States this week will be on releases from MBA Mortgage Applications, Initial Jobless Claims, Retails Sales, PPI Final Demand, Empire Manufacturing, and Industrial Production. Data for MBA Mortgage Applications will be released on Wednesday following last week’s drop of 11.6%. Initial Jobless Claims for the week of January 9 are expected at 275k after the previous week’s posting of 277k. Retails Sales Advance MoM for December is expected to drop 0.1% after growing 0.2% in the prior month. PPI Final Demand MoM for December is expected to fall 0.2% after growing by 0.3% in November. Empire Manufacturing for January is expected to post at -4.00 following December’s -4.59. Lastly, Industrial Production for December is expected to decrease 0.2% after falling 0.6% in November.

In the currency markets, the Canadian dollar is trading relatively flat against it’s U.S. counterpart early this morning. After a strong start yesterday morning for the Canadian dollar the U.S. dollar fought back and ended up on top for the day after oil prices dropped as much as 5.28% through the day. This morning, oil is only slightly down, approximately 9 cents per barrel. Focus throughout this week will continue to be on oil. Any major moves in the exchange rate will likely be attributed to any major moves in the price per barrel.

Todays expected range: 1.4164 – 1.4264

Source: Bloomberg

Posted by Concentra Financial Markets

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