Weekly Economic Update

For the week of January 18 to 22

465187851-wIt will be a very quiet Monday for data throughout both Canada and the United States. Bloomberg Nanos Confidence in Canada as of January 15 is releasing today after last week’s posting of 53.8. In the United States last week, Retail Sales met expectations of a 0.1% decline. PPI Final Demand also met expectations and posted a 0.2% decline. Empire Manufacturing posted at -19.37, falling well below the expectation of -4.00. Industrial Production fell by 0.4% after expectations pointed to a decline of only 0.2%. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index posted at 93.3, beating expectations of 92.9 and last month’s posting of 92.6.

In the week ahead for Canada, all eyes will be on the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report and Rate Decision which is scheduled for January 20. Out of 32 economists surveyed, 14 expect the BOC to cut rates to 0.25% while the remaining 18 economists expect the rate to remain unchanged at 0.50%. Other data expected out of Canada this week includes Manufacturing Sales, Retails Sales, and Consumer Prices. Manufacturing Sales for November are expected at 0.5% after last month’s decline of 1.1%. Retail Sales for November are expected to increase by 0.3% on a month-over-month basis following October’s 0.1% increase. Consumer Prices for December are expected to fall by 0.3% month over month, after falling by 0.1% in November. In the United States this week, data is expected from MBA Mortgage Applications, Housing Starts, Consumer Prices, Initial Jobless Claims, Market U.S. Manufacturing PMI, Existing Home Sales, and Leading Index among others.

In the currency markets, the Canadian dollar is trading slightly stronger than its United States counterpart this morning. After a week of record setting poor performance for both the Canadian dollar and oil, it is a welcome sight. Oil prices sunk significantly when sanctions were lifted in Iran. Iran is now planning to raise oil production by 500,000 barrels per day. Oil is currently trading down .14%, and still sits well below $30.00 per barrel at approximately $29.38 per barrel.

Todays expected range: 1.4458 – 1.4558

Source: Bloomberg

Posted by Concentra Financial Markets

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