Weekly Economic Update

For the week of February 1 to 5

Analyzing electronic documentIt will be a quiet Monday for data in Canada with only one release of note for the day. RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI is releasing this morning following December’s posting of 47.5. In the United States, Personal Income is expected to have risen 0.2% for the month of December after rising by 0.3% in November. Personal Spending is also expected to have come up, by 0.1%, through December, slightly less than the 0.3% increase in November. Markit US Manufacturing PMI for January is expected to stay flat at December’s level of 52.7. ISM Manufacturing is expected to post at 48.5 for January following December’s revised posting of 48.0. Construction Spending for December is expected to increase by 0.6% month-over-month after falling 0.4% in November.

It is going to be a relatively quiet week overall in Canada with no economic data expected until employment numbers are released on Friday. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay the same at 7.1% for the month of January. Net Employment Change for January however is only expected to increase by 6.5k, falling below December’s gain of 22.8k. In the United States this week, MBA Mortgage Applications will be posting for the week of January 29 after a posting of 8.8% in the prior week. ADP Employment Change for January is expected at 190k following December’s posting of 257k. Factory Orders for December are expected to fall by 2.8%, much further than November’s drop of 0.2%. The Trade Balance for December is expected at -$43.43b, falling slightly from -$42.37b. Change in Non-farm Payrolls for January will be posted on Friday and are expected to have increased by 190k, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.0% for the month of January.

In the currency markets, the Canadian dollar is trading relatively weak against its United States counterpart early this morning. After a relatively strong performance last week, the Canadian dollar is showing weakness, reflecting decreases in the price of oil this morning. Oil is down 3.36% to $32.49 per barrel early today. With little data expected out of Canada this week, expect any changes in the exchange rate to come from changes in the price of oil or from economic data out of the United States.

Todays expected range: 1.401 – 1.4110

Source: Bloomberg

Posted by Concentra Financial Markets

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