For the week of November 21 – 25.
Headline consumer price data this week showed an upward tick in inflation levels on both a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. Monthly data had inflation growing at 0.2% in October, up from 0.1% in September and in line with economist expectations. On a year-over-year basis, consumer prices grew by 1.5%, higher than the previous posting of 1.3%. Rising gasoline prices were a positive contributor to these inflation numbers. However, core consumer price growth remained flat at 0.2% on a month-over month basis and actually dropped to 1.7% from 1.8% on a year-over-year basis.
Oil prices saw increasing pressure from a rising US dollar, making commodities appear less desirable. The US dollar continued to find strength in growth prospects stemming from the election of Donald Trump, as well as recent statements by the Fed’s Janet Yellen suggesting an imminent interest rate hike. This morning, positive statements from both Iran and Iraq are helping the price of oil. In fact, the oil minister in Iran believes that a deal in Vienna is “highly probable.” Markets see this as important because both Iran and Iraq have been hampering the potential for an agreement until now. Oil is up 1.9% to $46.55 per barrel.
It will be a relatively quiet week in Canada for economic releases with the only notable releases coming from today’s wholesale trade sales numbers and Tuesday’s release of retail sales numbers. The United States will see a bit more action throughout the week with releases expected for existing home sales, durable goods orders, US manufacturing PMI, University of Michigan sentiment, and wholesale inventories, among others.
September wholesale trade sales in Canada released weaker than expected this morning, falling by 1.2% compared with economists predictions of a 0.5% increase. Excluding autos, wholesale sales dropped by 1.7%.
The Canadian dollar is showing strength this morning after multiple days of weakness following Donald Trump’s presidential election. Much of this strength can be attributed to the rise in oil prices. Today’s expected range is 1.3403 – 1.3503.