Weekly Economic Update

For the week of April 16-20.

After a 6.5 percent month-over-month decline in February, Canadian existing home sales increased 1.3 percent in March. Details of the Canadian Real Estate Association’s most recent release show that while existing home sales in Toronto rose 2.1 percent, existing home sales in Vancouver declined 8.6 percent. The Canada MLS home price benchmark rose 1.16 percent month-over-month in March, while the average home price fell 1.9 percent month-over-month (-10.4 percent on a year-over-year basis).

The University of Michigan Sentiment gauge declined more than expected according to April’s preliminary figures, falling to 97.8 from 101.4 – expectations were for a 100.4 reading. According to the survey, the small decline was widely shared by all age and income subgroups across all US regions. The report noted confidence still remains relatively high, despite the recent losses that were mainly due to concerns regarding the potential impact of Trump’s trade policies on the economy.

This week, the Bank of Canada will meet and announce their rate decision. Consensus expectations among economists are for the Bank to hold its target for the overnight rate steady at 1.25 percent. According to OIS trading during last Wednesday’s bank meeting,  the current implied probabilities of a rate hike is 19 percent. Other scheduled releases this week for Canada include: international securities transactions, manufacturing sales, retails sales and CPI. Major scheduled releases this week for the US include: various manufacturing figures, retail sales, housing starts, building permits and the leading indicators index.

The Canadian dollar is trading at similar levels to the US dollar from Friday’s market close. Today’s expected trading range is 1.2555 – 1.2655.

Source: Bloomberg



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