Weekly Economic Update

For the week of June 25 – 29.

Retail sales for April fell by 1.2 percent on a month-over-month basis, going against the  expectations for a flat zero percent posting. Excluding auto sales, the decline lessened to 0.1 percent. March retail sales increased from 0.6 percent to 0.8 percent on a month-over-month basis. Stats Canada noted the weaker than expected performance could be due to “poor weather”.

In addition to a weak retail sales release, consumer prices also missed expectations for the month of May, posting at 0.1 percent on a month-over-month basis (vs. expectations for 0.4 percent). On a year-over-year basis, consumer prices have risen to 2.2 percent, quite a bit shy of the surveyed 2.6 percent for May. Two significant factors in the lower inflation reading were lower prices in the phone, and travel categories. The largest upward contributor to the reading was the recreation and education categories (0.27 percent).

It will be a relatively quiet week for Canadian economic releases this week. The major release to look forward to is the April GDP figures. Consensus expectations are for zero growth month-over-month, and a 2.6 percent growth rate on an annual basis. Other releases include industrial product prices, and the raw material price index. The Bank of Canada will also release their second quarter business outlook future sales, senior loan officer survey, and overall business outlook survey. US data releases include numerous housing figures, sentiment gauges, various manufacturing numbers, and the final print of first quarter GDP.

The Canadian dollar is trading flat to slightly down against the US dollar from Friday’s market close. Today’s expected trading range is 1.3241 – 1.3341.

Source: Bloomberg

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