For the week of September 4 – 7.
Despite being a short week, scheduled economic releases for Canada include policy decisions, international merchandise trade data for July, building permit numbers for July, employment figures, and the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision. Currently, there is a very small chance (11.6 percent) of a rate hike being implied by the market. However, markets are expecting a 76 percent interest rate hike closer to the October policy meeting.
Scheduled economic releases for the United States include manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing, trade balance, and employment data. The change in nonfarm payrolls is expected to have increased to a level of 191K for August from the previous level of 157K. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9 percent.
The Canadian dollar is trading down significantly against the United States this morning. Uncertainty remains over whether or not an agreement will be reached between Canada and the United States on trade. US president Donald Trump has expressed there is no “political necessity” to keep Canada in the NAFTA agreement. Today’s expected range is 1.3114 – 1.3214.