For the week of May 15 – 19.
Canadian data releases for the week include manufacturing sales, international securities transactions, consumer prices, and retail sales. March retail sales figures are expected to have grown by 0.3 percent after falling by twice that amount in February. Excluding autos, sales grew by 0.2 percent. Consumer prices for April are expected to have grown by 0.6 percent on a month-over-month basis and 1.8 percent on a year-over-year basis. Releases out of the United States this week include empire manufacturing, housing starts, and industrial production.
Although United States reported growth in consumer prices and retail sales last Friday, equities and bond yields were down for the majority of the day. Despite both measures showing positive growth on a month-over-month basis, retails sales fell short of expectations. Consumer prices did the same after exclusion of the more volatile food and energy prices.
Oil prices are surging this morning on statements by Russia and Saudi Arabia, indicating an additional 9 month extension of production cuts. This extension is greater than investors were anticipating. Oil ministers for the two countries believe this extension is necessary to bring the market back into a desirable state. Further remarks suggest that other OPEC members are in agreement with the extension. Prices are currently up by 3.09 percent to $49.32 per barrel.
As one would expect, the Canadian dollar is sharing in oil strength, and is currently up approximately 0.7 percent against the US dollar. Today’s expected range is 1.3565 – 1.3665.
For the week of May 1-5
GDP figures released from both Canada and the United States on Friday were lower than expected. In Canada, month-over-month growth stalled in February, with zero percent growth compared to an expectation of 0.1 percent growth. This difference is significant compared to the previous month when growth was 0.6 percent. On a year-over-year basis growth has not exceeded expectations, despite an uptick to 2.5 percent. February’s decreasing of manufacturing (down 0.6 percent) and production has fueled disappointment. Annualized quarter-over-quarter GDP growth in the United States was released at 0.7 percent, dropping from 2.1 percent in the prior reading and short of the expected 1.0 percent.
University of Michigan Sentiment dropped in the United States for April to 97.0 from a prior posting of 98.0. American’s view of the current economic condition decreased slightly from 113.2 to 112.7, while expectations for the future jumped to 87 from 86.5.
Oil prices received some positivity on Friday as Russia stated they’ve met their required production cuts amounting to 300 thousand barrels. Prices ended the day up by .74 percent, but are down by .55 percent as of Monday, May 1. The Canadian dollar is currently trading flat against the US dollar.
Releases expected out of Canada this week will include international merchandise trades and employment figures. Canada is expected to have added 10K positions in April after adding 19.4K positions in March. Releases out of the United States will be seen for ISM manufacturing, ADP employment changes, trade balance, and employment figures. The Federal Reserve will also hold a policy meeting where a decision is expected to be released on May 3.
For the week of April 24-28.
Data out of Canada this week will be headlined by February GDP figures at the end of the week, but will include postings for wholesale trades and retail sales. February’s GDP figures are following a strong posting of 0.6 percent growth in January on a month-over-month basis. Data expected out of the United States this week includes new home sales, wholesale inventories, durable goods orders, GDP, and University of Michigan sentiment.
When Donald Trump announced last Friday he would be releasing a tax plan this week that included cutting corporate taxes, equity markets reversed their declines while bond yields recovered in the United States.
Investors showed concern leading up to the weekend’s vote in France determining the two front-runners: centrist Emmaunel Macron and far-right Marine Le Pen. Risk appetite has been increasing as investors are comfortable with a Macron victory, and polls are showing he is favorable to come out on top in the last round of voting on May 7. Equity markets and bond yields are showing market relief this morning.
The price of oil is up this morning on continued speculation that production cuts currently in place will be extended to bring the market back into balance. Prices are currently up 0.83 percent and the Canadian dollar is trading with strength against the US dollar. Today’s expected range is 1.3384 – 1.3484.
Posted by: Concentra Financial Markets
For the week of April 17-21.
It will be a relatively slow week for data in Canada with the two main releases for international securities transactions and consumer prices. The biggest releases in the United States this week will include empire manufacturing, housing starts, building permits, and industrial production. The Federal Reserve will also be releasing their Beige Book this week.
Consumer prices for the month of February were at a growth of 0.2 percent for month-over-month, and 2.0 percent for year-over-year basis. Consumer prices for the month of March were lower than expected in the United States. Prices fell by 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis and grew by only 2.4 percent on a year-over-year basis. Expectations were a growth of 0.0 percent and 2.6 percent. Removing food and energy prices from the indicator brings growth to -0.1 and 2.0 percent, also below expectations. Retail sales growth dropped by 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis for March, in line with expectations.
Manufacturing sales in February also dropped in growth of 0.2 percent on a month-over-month basis, following a revised growth of 0.1 percent in January. Economist expectation for growth was to drop even lower by 0.7 percent for the month. Manufacturing volumes were up by 0.1 percent for the month and inventories were increased by 1.6 percent.
Oil prices are down by 0.81 percent, while the Canadian dollar trades up on the US dollar. Today’s expected range is 1.3242 – 1.3342.
For the week of March 6 – 10.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen seems to have confirmed that the Fed will be raising interest rates in March; speculators have the rise’s probability at 96%. Yellen said that assuming employment and inflation are still in line with the central bank’s expectations, an adjustment to the overnight rate will be appropriate in March. Yellen also stated that rate adjustments will be less gradual than in the past. Fed Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer echoed his support of a rate hike: “there is almost no economic indicator that has come in badly in the last three months.”
China’s National People’s Congress announced a 2017 growth target of “around 6.5% or higher if possible,” compared to last year’s range of 6.5% – 7.0%.
Data releases in Canada this week will include international merchandise trade, housing starts, and employment. Friday’s employment release will follow a posting of 48.3K in January which was made up of 15.8K full-time positions and 32.4K part-time positions.
In the United States this week, releases are expected for factory and durable goods orders, trade balance, ADP employment change, wholesale inventories, and employment. Friday’s Nonfarm data release will be under close scrutiny leading into the March 15 Fed policy meeting, where investors are expecting the first rate hike of the year.